Should the Democrats let Trump win in 2020

Current US election: The current forecasts for the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden

The US presidential election is still far from a clear result. It is still unclear whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win. A “blue wave”, that is, a march through by the democratic challenger, has definitely failed to materialize. In important swing states, the count is still running and the race is often close.

What did not prevent incumbent Trump from declaring himself the election winner in a speech in the White House. "We're going to win this, and as far as I'm concerned we already have that," said Trump. “The results were phenomenal”. He repeated several times: "You can never get us." Without citing any evidence, Trump complained of fraud against the American people. He will call in the Supreme Court to have the further vote counting stopped. He had previously accused the Democrats on Twitter of “trying to steal the election” and announced that they would “never allow this to happen”. Trump is following the script that many observers warned against in the run-up to the election: claim victory during the counting and challenge the postal votes that are still open and have them declared invalid by the court. A democratic worst case.

We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed!

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020

Almost an hour before Trump, Democrat Joe Biden had already appeared in front of the cameras and his supporters and had shown himself self-confident: "We are confident," said Biden. “We are well on the way to winning this election. We knew that we had to be patient because of the many postal votes. And we will make sure that all votes are counted. ”Unlike his rival, he said that it has not yet been decided who will win, but the chances for the Democrats are good. In response to Trump's statement, Biden announced in a written statement that if Trump went to court to contest the election result, the Democrats would take legal action against it.

Meanwhile, the results still do not provide a clear picture of who will win the election. In many places the counts for that night have been temporarily stopped because of the advanced time. It may not continue there for a few hours.

What is certain:

In Ohio At first it looked as if the Democrat Joe Biden would do better than expected, now Donald Trump has been declared the winner. The situation is similar in Florida: According to US TV broadcaster Fox News, CNN and the AP news agency, the key state goes to Donald Trump. Apparently, the Florida president did well in counties with high Latino populations. In populous Miami-Dade County, in particular, his challenger Biden received fewer votes than he would likely need to win the state.

In polls, the candidates in both Ohio and Florida had been close together. (More interactive infographics and detailed information can be found here.)

According to the AP news agency, has Joe Biden the US state of New York, Minnesota and New Mexico won. Donald Trump wins in the states, according to AP Texas, Iowa,Missouri,Kansas, Louisiana, Wyoming, and South and North Dakota. So far, there are no surprises among them. As expected, Biden also prevailed on the west coast: California, Oregon and the state Washington he could decide for himself. All of these states were previously considered decided - as they were announced.

Biden wins the contested state Arizona, which has long been considered a safe bastion for the Republicans. It is the first state Biden can take away from Trump. In addition, Biden could individual electors in Nebraska and Maine win for themselves, the others fell to Trump. There the voters are distributed individually and not all of them go to the candidate, with most of the voters in the state. While Biden received three of the four voters from the AP in Maine, there were more voters for Trump in Nebraska.

Where a decision is emerging:

In North Carolina After counting 95 percent of the votes, advantages for Trump are emerging. The Republican is in dire need of all of these states, Biden would have other ways to victory.

In the state Hawaii, which is expected to go to the Democrats, according to Edison Research Joe Biden was able to get the four electors. Other media have not yet confirmed this. According to Edison Research, 99 percent of the votes are now counted there and Biden is clearly ahead with 63.7 percent.

The very close race in Wisconsin has, according to the AP report, Joe Biden decided for himself and thus secured ten electorates. According to Edison Research, after counting 99 percent of the vote, the Democrat comes to 49.4 percent and Trump to 48.8 percent. The Republicans have already announced that they will request a recount because of alleged irregularities, while the Democrats want to take legal action against it. Both sides have called on their supporters for donations to help fund the anticipated litigation. In previous years, recounts usually only shifted a few hundred votes.

Where the race is still open:

In Georgia Trump is currently very slightly ahead. However, the counting of votes from Atlanta in particular, a city with a heavily Afro-American population, is still missing. That makes the state more diverse than it seems at first glance. There the counting was stopped in the evening (local time). Because so many postal votes have not yet been counted, no winner has yet been proclaimed here. The counts should not continue until the morning.

The observers also take a closer look at the states in the Midwest: Pennsylvania andMichigan. These three gave Trump his narrow election victory in 2016, and all of them are characterized by a rather white working population. There the forecasts are very close together.

In Michigan It is now becoming apparent that Biden will take the lead. According to Edison Research, after counting 93 percent of the vote, the Democrat now comes to 49.6 percent, Trump is 48.7 percent.

The counting takes longer because of the high percentage of postal votes. The certification of these votes is often a lengthy process in the USA, and some signatures have to be compared individually with those of the electoral roll. In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Republican Party had stopped efforts to open election envelopes before election Tuesday.

In Nevada Biden is very slightly ahead. There is still counting. But there is still no result. Clinton won here in 2016, so experts are more likely to expect Biden to win. A decision can take until Friday. In Nevada there is a law according to which letters that will arrive by then and have been postmarked on election day at the latest are counted.

The focus is currently mainly on Pennsylvania. Trump is currently solidly at least five percent ahead there, but this race is still considered totally open. The reason is also here the postal voters. In Pennsylvania, these could not be counted until election day. Pennsylvania Governor Democrat Tom Wolf said on Twitter that there are still more than a million postal votes to be counted. according to reports, half of them have now been counted. Trump's lead is only a few hundred thousand votes. So that could still change slightly - especially because a higher proportion of democratic voters is expected among postal voters. Here, too, election workers were sent home in some constituencies. You should continue in the morning (in the afternoon German time).

The results are also open Alaska. They have not yet been counted because the election offices there were open much longer due to the time difference, but Alaska is expected to fall to Trump.

We still have over 1 million mail ballots to count in Pennsylvania.

I promised Pennsylvanians that we would count every vote and that’s what we’re going to do.

- Governor Tom Wolf (@GovernorTomWolf) November 4, 2020

Current developments show: Because of the corona pandemic, it is particularly difficult this year to assess the counting status during election night. Many Biden supporters had declared that they wanted to vote by postal vote. President Trump's voters were more likely to vote on election day. The states have different methods of counting which votes when, allowing large swings during election night. To make matters worse: In the USA, the numbers are published individually for each district and are not collected nationwide. The media therefore play a major role here.

Fight for the House of Representatives and the Senate

According to forecasts by TV stations NBC and Fox News, the Democrats have, as expected, defended their majority in the House of Representatives in the US election. According to the AP news agency, the number of Democratic and Republican seats won and lost were in balance.

At first it remained more exciting with the second Congress Chamber, the Senate. The momentum that the Democrats had hoped for did not materialize here either. Several Republicans who were considered a shaky candidate were able to defend their Senate seats. So far, the Republicans in the Senate have a slim majority of 53 of the 100 seats. Before the election, 14 seats were considered contested. According to CNN, the Democrats won 45 seats and the Republicans 48. This means that six Senatorial seats are still open. No final results were available from Alaska, Michigan, North Carolina and Maine. Then there is Georgia. Because a 50 percent majority is necessary there to win, it will not be decided until a runoff election in January who will enter the Senate: the Republican incumbent or her Democratic challenger.

With control of the entire Congress, even if incumbent Donald Trump wins the presidential election, the Democrats could largely block Republican policies.

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